Minsheng Securities new credit volume does not mean that the entity stabilized 安步当车的意思

Minsheng Securities: new credit volume does not mean that the entity stabilized Sina Financial News on February 16th, 16 morning, the central bank announced January credit and social financing data. Data show that in January, RMB loans increased by 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan, an increase of 14% M2, social financing scale increased by 3 trillion and 420 billion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion and 370 billion yuan. Minsheng Securities believes that the financial data than expected growth, mainly due to the replacement of dollar debt, release and seasonal factors project reserves, consider rate fell to real returns, risk premium rises, the phenomenon of shortage of assets not effectively alleviate the new credit volume does not represent the real body stabilization.     the following is a detailed comment: [Minsheng solid collection] January financial data review 1, high credit growth. In January, the new RMB loans 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan (old caliber 2 trillion and 540 billion yuan), a record monthly record high. At the end of 1, the RMB loan balance was 96 trillion and 460 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3%. The volume of new loans has been significantly reduced: 1, some enterprises converted the US dollar debt into RMB loans to shrink the foreign exchange risk exposure, and to cope with devaluation expectations (foreign loans increased by 37 billion 400 million dollars less than the same period last year). 2, seasonal factors: banks tend to launch mortgage loans at the beginning of the year (new medium and long-term residents loans 478 billion 300 million), a large number of enterprises to reserve projects at the beginning of the year (new enterprise loans 1 trillion and 940 billion), at the beginning of the bill financing is higher (add 371 billion 900 million yuan). 3, the real estate inventory background, the government support for residents to buy more, maintain high mortgage. 2, enterprise loan structure and investment demand improvement. Enterprises to add medium and long-term loans 1 trillion and 40 billion: 1, financial special debt matching loans issued. 2, the enterprise project reserves are abundant. However, due to limited reserve projects, the need for excessive release of loans may cause subsequent credit growth weakness. 3, social financial increment is beyond expectation. Benefited from the large-scale launch of credit at the beginning of the year, the financial balance of the company in January was 141 trillion and 600 billion, up from 13.3% year-on-year, and the social added value increased by 3 trillion and 420 billion, reaching a record high. The new entrusted loan of 217 billion 500 million yuan (PPP projects to improve the city voted platform financing needs), notes the total increase of 504 billion 500 million yuan (seasonal growth), foreign currency loans significantly less (expected devaluation), bond financing (454 billion 700 million new bond yields down to increase the bond financing, stock financing attraction) nearly 150 billion new shares (benefit from with the issuance of direct financing scale), over 600 billion, the demand of social overall financing has improved, but if the subsequent credit growth is not sustainable, then the increment financing agency and the growth rate will fall. In 4 and January, the M2 growth rate rose to 14%, creating a new high of 18 months, benefiting from the derivative effect brought by large-scale credit. M1 growth rose to 18.6%:1, the project reserve is rich in resources and special financial bonds supporting loans makes corporate demand deposits rise; cash increased by 2, residents of the holiday effect. 5, financial data growth exceeded expectations, mainly from the replacement dollar debt, project reserves concentrated release and seasonal factors, consider the theory 民生证券:新增信贷放量并不代表实体企稳   新浪财经讯 2月16日消息,16日上午央行公布1月份信贷和社会融资数据。数据显示,1月人民币贷款增加2.51万亿元,M2同比增长14%;社会融资规模增3.42万亿元,同比增1.37万亿元。民生证券认为,金融数据增长超预期,主要源于置换美元债务,项目储备集中释放和季节性因素,考虑到实体回报率下降,风险溢价上升,资产荒现象没有有效缓解,新增信贷的放量并不代表实体企稳。    以下为详细点评:   【民生固收】1月金融数据点评   1、信贷高速增长。1月新增人民币贷款2.51万亿元(老口径2.54万亿元),创下单月纪录新高。1月末人民币贷款余额为96.46万亿元,同比增长15.3%。新增贷款规模显著放量:1、部分企业将美元债务转换为人民币贷款以收缩外汇风险敞口,应对贬值预期(外币贷款同比少增374亿美元)。2、季节性因素:银行倾向于年初投放按揭贷款(新增中长期居民贷款4783亿),企业大量储备项目在年初投放(新增企业贷款1.94万亿),年初票据融资较高(新增3719亿元)。3、房地产去库存背景下,政府对居民买房的支持力度加大,房贷维持高位。   2、企业贷款结构与投资需求改善。企业新增中长期贷款1.04万亿:1、金融专项债的配套贷款发放。2、年初企业项目储备丰富。但由于储备项目有限,过快释放贷款需要可能造成后续信贷增长乏力。   3、社融增量超预期。受益于年初信贷大规模投放,1月社融余额141.6万亿,同比增速回升至13.3%,社融新增3.42万亿,创历史新高。其中,新增委托贷款2175亿元(PPP项目提高城投平台融资需求),票据合计增加5045亿元(季节性增长),外币贷款大幅较少(人民币贬值预期),债券融资新增4547亿(债券收益率下降增加债券融资吸引力),股票融资新增近1500亿(受益于新股与增发),直接融资规模超6000亿,社会整体融资需求出现好转,但如果后续信贷增长不具备可持续性,则社融增量和增速将出现回落。   4、1月份M2增速上升到14%,创18个月新高,受益于大规模信贷投放带来的派生效应。M1增速上升到18.6%:1、项目储备资源丰富及专向金融债的配套贷款使得企业活期存款上升;2、节日效应造成居民提现增加。   5、金融数据增长超预期,主要源于置换美元债务,项目储备集中释放和季节性因素,考虑到实体回报率下降,风险溢价上升,资产荒现象没有有效缓解,新增信贷的放量并不代表实体企稳。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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